CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-04-12T00:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38332/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the north of STEREO A COR2. The potential source is activity from the vicinity of ARs 4055 (approx. N06W52) and 4058 (approx. N15W53) characterized by brightening best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2025-04-11T23:13Z and opening/moving field lines best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is not seen in STEREO A EUV imagery due to a data gap. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T18:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 61.43 hour(s)
Difference: -1.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-04-13T03:10Z
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